Arsenal’s Commanding Victory Over Burnley
In the 10th round of the Premier League, Arsenal routinely dismantled Burnley with a 2-0 victory. The match showcased total dominance in both gameplay and statistics—exactly what Mikel Arteta loves to see.
Statistical Supremacy
The numbers tell the story of Arsenal’s control:
- 8-0 in shots on target
- 4-0 in clear goal-scoring opportunities
- 2.38 vs 0.37 in expected goals (xG)
The result was effectively sealed in the first half following Declan Rice’s second goal. The winning goal came from Victor Džokeres, who scored in the English championship for the first time since September. The performance radiated positivity and championship-level confidence.
Title Race Heating Up
Arsenal has now won five consecutive matches in the championship, building a seven-point cushion over Bournemouth and Liverpool. Could the title race already be over? Bookmakers and analysts seem to think so.
Historical Favorite Status Under Arteta
Arsenal has never been such a strong favorite during Arteta’s tenure. Only one competitor maintains a 10% or higher chance, while Liverpool continues to slide downward.
The Opta supercomputer quickly calculates team probabilities for titles, European qualification, and relegation. The projections following the 10th round matches reveal a historic advantage in the Mikel Arteta era.
Never before has Arsenal been given more than a 70% chance of winning the championship.
Bookmakers Align with Supercomputer
Importantly, the overall picture won’t change significantly after Manchester City’s match. Liverpool sits in third place with less than 10% chance of defending their title, despite nearly mirroring Arsenal’s position after five rounds.
Key Probability Insights
- Bookmakers’ predictions align with the supercomputer: Arsenal’s title odds range between 1.30-1.35, translating to approximately Opta’s percentage forecast
- Manchester City and Liverpool show slightly higher chances in this version, though bookmaker margins affect the traditional 100% calculation
- Current average odds place City around 5.00, while Liverpool has soared to 7.50
- Manchester United missed their chance for second place after dropping points against Nottingham, with the supercomputer predicting maximum top-10 contention
Quadruple Possibility Emerges
Arsenal stands as favorites in nearly all competitions. After Liverpool’s midweek elimination from the Carabao Cup, Arsenal climbed to the top spot.
Across All Competitions
- In the FA Cup, Arsenal currently ranks third behind Liverpool and Manchester City, though odds are expected to adjust soon
- In the Champions League, Londoners sit nearly level with PSG (6.00 vs 5.80)
- The quadruple outcome odds have improved from 150.00 to 50.00—three times more likely since September
The most probable scenario involves winning two trophies: the Premier League and Champions League, with nearly 15% probability. The chance of a classic treble with the FA Cup stands at 5%.
Challenging Schedule Ahead
Arsenal faces a demanding championship calendar: an away match against tough Sunderland, a home derby with Tottenham, and an away game against Chelsea. Sandwiched between these is a Champions League showdown with superpower Bayern Munich. After this intense stretch, we’ll need to reassess probabilities—the quadruple may become less likely.
Chelsea secured their derby and continues to push forward, adding another layer of competition to Arsenal’s path to glory.
