F1 Mexico GP: Verstappen Returns as Clear Favorite After Dominant US Performance
Formula 1 has rolled into Mexico from Texas on a wave of Verstappen mania following the Dutchman’s complete domination at the United States Grand Prix. After securing the sprint pole, sprint victory, main qualifying pole, and race win, Max Verstappen has eaten into the lead of the front-running McLarens. Lando Norris now sits just 14 points ahead, while Oscar Piastri’s advantage has shrunk to only 40 points – a scenario the reigning champion himself would have called “idiotic” to predict just this summer.
Odds Surge: Verstappen Back Among Legitimate Favorites
Verstappen’s championship odds have skyrocketed, placing him firmly among the legitimate favorites for both the Mexican Grand Prix and the season finale. But is this justified?
Expectations are building for Verstappen to secure back-to-back victories, a familiar position that had become somewhat unfamiliar in recent races. The probability shift has been dramatic: in Italy and Azerbaijan, his win probability stood at no more than 20%, Singapore saw 28%, and the US Grand Prix reached 33%. Now in Mexico, he commands a 40% chance of victory.
The Favorite Trio: Shifting Dynamics
Before the previous race, the top three competitors were tightly grouped: Verstappen at 3.00, Lando Norris at 3.10, and Oscar Piastri at 3.40. While the favorite trio remains unchanged, confidence in Verstappen has strengthened significantly.
Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc continues his descent down the rankings. The Ferrari driver’s odds have progressively worsened: 6.70 before Singapore, 15.00 before the US Grand Prix, and now 17.00 in Mexico. George Russell’s numbers have returned to more familiar territory compared to his previous 10.00 rating.
The main intrigue undoubtedly revolves around the top three contenders. Interestingly, before Singapore, the competition was even tighter with all three drivers compressed within the 3.10-3.40 range. While the gap has slightly widened, interest remains intense.
Track Factor: Why Mexico Genuinely Suits Red Bull
Despite only one week separating the Texas and Mexico City races, and with a relatively short travel distance, the parts shortage won’t play the same decisive role. Due to the circuit configuration and its mountainous location, teams bring entirely different wings and bodywork packages anyway.
Mexico’s Unique Challenge: A Tale of Two Circuits
The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez presents a truly unique challenge: half technical and slow with high downforce requirements, the other half extremely fast featuring an exceptionally long straight.
This configuration typically demands reducing downforce, but considering the circuit’s location at 2,286 meters above sea level, aerodynamic efficiency naturally drops by about 25%. Consequently, finding the perfect setup and balance for Mexico represents one of the calendar’s most complex challenges.
Teams face critical decisions: run more wing and lose out on the massive 1.2km straight? Or run less wing but slide through corners, overheat tires, and suffer during race pace? The questions are numerous and complex.
Additional Complications: Slippery Surface and Tire Experiment
The slippery asphalt adds another layer of complexity. With minimal other racing activity throughout the year, track rubber remains scarce. Consequently, every car suffers from poor mechanical grip, requiring careful suspension setup considerations. However, lap times will progressively improve as more rubber gets laid down.
An additional challenge comes from Pirelli’s latest experimental phase with compounds. The hardest tire remains the durable C2, while the medium and soft compounds stay as C4 and C5 respectively (from the five available options). While the US Grand Prix concluded with mostly one-stop strategies and minimal hard tire usage, with tires coming up to temperature more easily, Mexico presents different thermal challenges.
Here, the combination of high altitude and circuit characteristics creates significant rear tire overload and overheating concerns that could dramatically impact race strategy.
Team Strategies: The High-Altitude Conundrum
With reduced aerodynamic efficiency and tricky tire management, teams must walk a fine line between straight-line speed and cornering performance. The thin air affects not only downforce but also engine performance and cooling systems.
Red Bull historically excels in these high-altitude conditions, having demonstrated strong performance in Mexico throughout recent seasons. Their ability to manage the reduced downforce while maintaining mechanical grip could prove decisive.
McLaren’s Response: Can They Challenge in Thin Air?
McLaren’s recent resurgence faces its ultimate high-altitude test. Both Norris and Piastri have shown they can challenge Verstappen under normal conditions, but Mexico’s unique environment could either amplify or negate their recent advantages.
The stage is set for another thrilling chapter in this increasingly competitive Formula 1 season, where altitude, strategy, and tire management will separate the contenders from the pretenders.
